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UNM ‘failure factory’ has only 44% of students graduating

Last updated: 09/25/09 12:53am

Editor,

Did you know the overall graduation rate for UNM undergraduates, six years after enrollment, is only 44 percent? More than half of the undergraduates you see around campus will probably drop out.
A Sept. 8 New York Times article cited the University of New Mexico as an example of a “failure factory” because of its low graduation rates.
UNM’s Hispanic graduation rate is around 41 percent, and the national Hispanic graduation rate is around 48 percent, according to current federal data published by the U.S. Department of Education. These are measured as graduation rates six years after enrollment. This data indicates UNM is graduating Hispanics at a rate lower than the national rate, but some UNM academic officers would rather you didn’t know this.
In a Sept. 11 Albuquerque Journal op-ed, UNM Provost Suzanne Ortega wrote, “For many years now, Hispanic students have graduated from UNM at nearly twice the rate of Hispanics nationwide.”
When I questioned this statement, Vice Provost Wynn Goering told me that Ortega based her assertion on a study that tracked 25,000 Hispanic students who were in the ninth grade in 1988. In this out-of-date study, only 23 percent graduated.
I am concerned by the possible deleterious effect of Ortega’s statement. Since Ortega has not replied to my letters, I am taking the initiative to correct the public record.
The shocking numbers are the financial losses when students don’t graduate from UNM. Total tuition paid by UNM students in 2007-2008 was $87 million. Total grant aid received by undergraduate students was $61 million. Mark Schneider, an economist cited in the New York Times article, has developed an indicator of financial losses. UNM’s overall graduation rate is 44 percent. Following Schneider’s approach, I estimate an annual loss to UNM students in tuition of $31 million, and losses to state and federal government of $26 million. When students don’t graduate, not only are their up-front investments of tuition, loans and grant aid lost, their lifelong earnings are also significantly reduced.
Ortega’s op-ed was titled “Expect More Excellence From UNM Scholars.” Yes, I do expect excellence — from Ortega herself, who serves as UNM Provost and Executive Vice President. I expect current, accurate information about UNM’s performance, and a willingness to clarify misleading statements. I call on Ortega to publish a clarification in the Albuquerque Journal.

Vicki Johnson
UNM alumna

Published September 25, 2009 in Letters, Opinion

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18 comments



Robeert

September 25, 2009 at 7:41 AM
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I would hope that we could find some better reason for increasing the graduation rate at UNM or any other university than simply providing more fodder for the military-industrial complex in which universities have become such an integral part. Even when one graduates, if he or she is not able to become what use to be called in the military “cannon fodder” to be into the maw of the corporate beast, then the degree is spoken of as a waste of time. Once again, the power structure that still pulls the strings of this country from its multinational perch will demand that if we cannot provide them with degreed drones they will simply have to move one more part of their machine somewhere else where they can further impoverish another part of the Third World. Truly, it would be better to die on your feet than to live on your knees.


Martin

September 25, 2009 at 8:06 AM
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Why graduate? The University sent a strong and clear message to students a few years back with the hiring of Billy Sparks. This non-degreed former spokesperson for Governor Richardson was given a high paying job based on his political connections, not his academic qualifications.

No, UNM is doing an excellent job preparing students for the real world of New Mexico: education doesn’t matter because it is not what you know but who you know!


Casey

September 25, 2009 at 9:22 AM
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It would be nice to further shed light on the reasons the other 56% of students have “dropped out”. Could it be that a substantial portion of them were fed up and transferred to another institution such as NMSU or to a university in another state? Some may have pursued a vocational path at CNM, ITT-Tech, University of Phoenix, etc. Some may have also come to the conclusion that a degree just isn’t worth the expense anymore. This should come as no surprise in the state of New Mexico where there seems to be too many degrees chasing too few jobs.


Donour

September 25, 2009 at 9:57 AM
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This overly simplistic analysis of the data does not take into account that many, many UNM students are either part time or work while attending UNM. The assumption is made that every student drops out if they haven’t graduated within 72 months of enrolling as a freshman.

In reality, many students take lighter loads or semesters off to pay for vital expenses such as childcare. The author should note that the average age for a UNM undergrad is well above the national average.


Sari

September 25, 2009 at 10:47 AM
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Speaking of the importance of context, this is the full paragraph referred to from the New York Times article:

Only 33 percent of the freshmen who enter the University of Massachusetts, Boston, graduate within six years. Less than 41 percent graduate from the University of Montana, and 44 percent from the University of New Mexico. The economist Mark Schneider refers to colleges with such dropout rates as “failure factories,” and they are the norm.

Read more …

Here’s the article: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/09/business/economy/09leonhardt.html?scp=7&sq=university of new mexico &st=cse


gil

September 25, 2009 at 11:54 AM
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I am a graduate student who just returned to my studies due to job loss.I wonder if there are any statistics that capture undergraduate students that drop out and return to school later in life. If it’s one thing the UNM_OLIT program has taught me is that education is a lifelong process. When I see numbers like this related to graduation rates and Hispanic population in New Mexico I wonder if its just not the system. By that I mean the public school system, CNM and UNM just not being proactive in addressing the education VOID. The leadership in education in New Mexico needs to be more proactive to the needs of the population as opposed to being reactive to the statistics. Whatever the solution education in this state (or any state for that matter) is key to economic development. Most political officials in New Mexico like to share numbers for their platforms but they don’t really put much action into those forums.


Maggie

September 25, 2009 at 11:56 AM
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This statistic of 44% graduation rate is just a meaningless number until the reasons for dropping out come to light. Maybe UNM’s student body is busy with other concerns, as Donour points out. Maybe UNM refuses to pass unqualified candidates.
I work at a university where grades are a joke – if you sleep through the entire class, you still get a “B”, and you have to go to a special effort to fail outright.
Labeling UNM as a “failure factory” is leaping to an unfounded conclusion.


slowhike

September 25, 2009 at 12:16 PM
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Comparison of UNM to National University graduation rates is a meaningful comparison. The comparison stats must use apples to apples etc. I would hazard a guess that a majority of UNM students come from the APS system; if that’s true, many may not be prepared as well as high school graduates in other states. Additionally, with special programs attempting to get “as many minorities as possible” enrolled at UNM, the fact that not all students are destined for college is forgotten. It is a diservice, not a service, to set students up to fail.


Vicki Johnson

September 25, 2009 at 12:31 PM
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The overall national 6-year graduation rate is 58%, for comparison to UNM’s 44%.

Another flaw in Dr. Ortega’s Albuquerque Journal op-ed was her comparison of an old 4-year graduation rate (23%) to UNM’s current 6-year graduation rate (41%).

Read more …

I maintain Dr. Ortega should have compared apples to apples, current 6-year UNM data with the current 6-year national data. Current data show Hispanics at UNM are graduating at a rate (41%) below the national Hispanic rate (48%).

The 6-year graduation rate was established in 1992 by the NCAA to monitor the academic performance of student-athletes and later adopted by U.S. Department of Education. The 6-year rate is a good measure for selective institutions like Harvard, Princeton and Yale, where the 6-year graduation rate is above 95%. For less selective state institutions, some have suggested it would be better to measure how many in-state students graduate within 10 years.

But Dr. Ortega did not make any such arguments to justify her claim in the Albuquerque Journal that UNM is graduating Hispanics at twice the national rate.

UNM ranks last when compared to 6-year graduation rates at UNM’s peer institutions. Like UNM students, many students at these comparable institutions, such as University of Arizona and University of Texas, are probably facing financial challenges. Factors in choosing peer institutions, can include similar size, urban setting, SAT scores, minority enrollments, percentage of students eligible for Pell grants, etc. But still UNM ranks last on the overall graduation rate and the Hispanic graduation rate, which indicates UNM is performing poorly. UNM’s peer institutions can be found in the UNM Fact Books.

I graduated from UNM and then went to Stanford and NYU for graduate degrees. I’d like to see many more students succeed at UNM and get a good start in life. For Dr. Ortega to measure UNM against a weak 23% rate standard won’t motivate improvement. I agree with a previous comment that hires and appointments of individuals with political connections Richardson has also harmed UNM.


Che

September 25, 2009 at 1:08 PM
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Ms. Johnson is justified in identifying graduation rates as a major concern for UNM with particular emphasis on ethnic groups. However, she is misguided and erroneous in personally attacking Ms. Ortega on the data. The study is likely a Department of Education longitudinal study that tracks students over 8.5 years and actually tracks the student and not the institution data. The result is the rate of graduation is actually higher and therefore desirable to use for comparisons. The cohort is not recent but the data analysis is because it takes a substantial amount of time to do a longitudinal study. This is the most recent data. Also a hint to Ms. Johnson or anyone who wants to compare graduation rates by ethnicity. POPULATION SIZE AND ENTRANCE PREPARATION MATTER.

Che


Vicki Johnson

September 25, 2009 at 1:46 PM
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Hey Che. Yes, a longitudinal study is useful for many reasons, but not as employed by Dr. Ortega. The study is the NLES:1988/2000 study (see reference below). For a comparison to NLES data, Dr. Ortega should have compared UNM’s 6-year Hispanic graduation rate (42%) to the 6-year NLES graduation rate (~40%), not the 4-year NLES rate (23%). Dr. Ortega’s assertion that UNM is graduating Hispanics at twice the “national”/NLES rate is incorrect.

Dr. Ortega didn’t say in the op-ed that she was referring to a longitudinal study of 25,000 Hispanics. She compared UNM to “the national rate”. Has Dr. Ortega really believed, for years, that Hispanics are graduating at a rate of 23% around the country?

Read more …

I am not personally attacking Dr. Ortega. I am criticizing her flawed analysis, for which she should take responsibility, given she is an Executive VP and Provost.

As for comparing population size, the US Dept of Education/NCES compiles data for close to 2 million Hispanics, whereas the NLES data followed only 25,000 Hispanics. Also the Hispanic demographic has undergone tremendous change in the twenty years since the inception of the study.

Source:
See “Latino Youth and the Pathway to College” http://www.educationalpolicy.org/pdf/Latino_Youth.pdf
This paper was provided to me by Dr. Goering to document Dr. Ortega’s selection 23% for comparison to UNM’s data.

From Table 2 on page 39 (document numbering), page 49 (Adobe page numbering):
NLES:1988/2000, Time for Bachelor’s completion: within 4 years: 23% up to 5 years: 34.5% More than 5 years: 42.4%


Retired mathematician

September 25, 2009 at 2:13 PM
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Sari commented above that context is important and, taking the NYT article in context, concluded cheerfully that UNM is not an unusual failure factory but an average failure factory. Well, that takes the cake!

I applaud anyone who continues to work for a degree while raising children or earning a living no matter how long that may require. It is possible that the demographics for New Mexico are such that ordinary statistics and comparisons to not apply. If that is true, then UNM provost Dr. Ortega should not have applied such statistics without explanation.

Read more …

Besides, the statistics chosen by Dr. Ortega were out of date and led to her misleading claim that UNM Latino graduation rates are twice the national average. Che’s attempt to improve the appearance of the chosen data by remarking that the study was longitudinal doesn’t hack it.

UNM needs clear-eyed honest self-appraisal to make improvement possible.


lobo

September 25, 2009 at 2:18 PM
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President Schmidly- Can you read this. Why are you STILL here? This isn’t football where you can give clowns $ 91,000 bonuses for achievements made by other athletic directors. When these numbers are further analyzed, it will be a tribute to your ineptitude.It doesn’t take many years and granting you a big pension to clearly see, it doesn’t require a great degree of perspicacity to see what an abject failure you are. It’s little wonder the faculty gave you a no confidence vote not too long ago. What a joke you’ve turned out to be. Unfortunately, the brunt of the joke is the taxpayers, the students, the alumni, the faculty and non teaching employees. Su trabajo est muy malo!


Che

September 25, 2009 at 4:16 PM
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To compare graduation rates, look at selectivity, number of low income students, and population size for comparisons. A national study with the number of low income Hispanics as 13.8% of the population is hardly a valid comparison for UNM. Retired Mathematician, the study was published in 2006. This is hardly dated. If you knew anything about the Department of Education Research you would know this is the amount of time it takes them and also that this particular researcher is very well respected no matter how long it takes. Good thing you are retired.


Vicki Johnson

September 25, 2009 at 6:40 PM
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Well, Che, let’s have a demonstration of your prowess.

Compare UNM’s current Hispanic graduation rate with the national rate. State your data, sources and methods.


Vicki Johnson

September 26, 2009 at 3:30 PM
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A refinement to a sentence in my letter:

The study Ortega used for a tracked 25,000 students of different ethnicities who were in the 8th grade in 1988; only 10%, or 2,500 of these students were Hispanic.

Read more …

This is a small sample size compared to enrollment data compiled by the Dept. of Education – about 25 million total, 2 million Hispanic.


ME!

September 26, 2009 at 3:34 PM
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Hey! Look on the bright side! UNM’s graduation rate is higher than my old high school’s!

Come on people, keep politics out of this, keep corruption out of this, keep opinion out of this. Keep with the facts. The fact is, we have a 44% graduation rate. What are we going to do to fix this? And if your response is it’s politics, or corruption, or money, or ‘who you know,’ that we need to get rid of to fix this, then i hope you arn’t in a situation to try to help things, because that definitely won’t. If there’s one thing i’ve learned about odds, and percentages, it’s that they can be beat, and they WILL be beat. The only way to bring up the graduation rate, is to decide, ‘i’m going to graduate.’ You can overcome anything if you decide you’re going to. Where I come from, I’ve overcome odds of graduating high school, i’ve overcome odds of going to college, i’ve overcome odds of not being in jail by now, i’ve overcome the odds of being able to walk properly after an injury… You think i’m going to let a simple matter of there being a 41% chance of me personally graduating college slow me down? Laughable.


Vicki Johnson

September 28, 2009 at 10:26 PM
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Bravo, previous commenter! You have a great attitude and you will succeed. Good luck to you.

A couple more refinements based on more research, some drawn from the excellent new book called “Crossing the Finish Line: Completing College in America’s Public Universities”.

Read more …

The study used by Dr. Ortega tracked 25,000 students of different ethnicities who were in the 8th grade in 1988; only 10%, or 2,500 of these students were Hispanic. As the study progressed, the data was subsampled to 12,000 participants or approx. 1,200 Hispanics. Of all the 8th graders, subsampled, only 13% completed a bachelor’s degree – that’s about 1200*.13= ~160 Hispanics.

Dr. Ortega referred the Hispanic graduation rate from this study, 23%, as “the national rate”, implying it is a current rate, which it is not, and national, but it reflects only 160 Hispanic students who were in the 8th grade in 1988 who completed a bachelor’s degree.

Ortega’s 23% graduation rate is the 6-year rate, not a 4-year rate as I commented above.

Finally, I found the assertion that “it is worth noting that UNM’s Hispanic graduation rates are nearly twice the national average for Latino students” repeated again in a report at
www.unm.edu/~acadaffr/SupportingFiles/UC Summary Report Final_2-22-08.pdf.
Dr. Ortega is not listed as a contributor. The chair for the task force appears to be vice-provost Wynn Goering. No reference or data to support this assertion is presented in that paper either.

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