Not surprisingly, Steve Alford didn’t have any preseason premonitions when he was asked to estimate how many wins the UNM men’s basketball team needs to get into the NCAA Tournament this year.

Every year, the requisite magic-number-of-wins question is raised, and, every year, the men’s head basketball coach, now heading into his third season with the Lobos, responds more or less in the same manner — “I have no idea.”

Why? Because every year the UNM men’s basketball team is left to brood over its NCAA-bid inadequacies, however marginal.

“Twenty-four (wins) the first year and 22 and a (regular-season) championship wasn’t enough,” Alford said. “Our schedule is tougher. Our schedule is something that keeps getting better, and that’s something that enhances the things that you want to do (in the season).”

If the NCAA Selection Committee is captain on an elementary basketball court, the Lobos are always the last kid picked.

Two years ago, in Alford’s maiden voyage, the Lobos reeled off 24 regular-season wins — but suffered a Titanic collapse against sixth-place finisher Utah, falling short in overtime of the Mountain West Conference Tournament quarterfinals 82-80.

Not coincidentally, that led to the Lobos’ exclusion from the NCAA Tournament. UNM was then vanquished in the National Invitational Tournament by California — one of the top-flight teams on the Lobos’ schedule this year.

Still, it seems the Lobos just can’t steer clear of the iceberg, because the exact same thing happened to them last season. Twenty-two wins, but then another hasty one-night stand — the Lobos were in and out of the MWC Tournament before anyone could blink, this time with the spurs of Wyoming tortuously digging into them.

Conceivably — early conference-tournament losses aside — UNM’s biggest quandary is scheduling, which as Alford said at the conclusion of last year’s season, it’s a catch-22.

Play a tough nonconference schedule, Alford said, and you run the risk of beating up your team before it enters conference play. Schedule too many Hostess, cream-filled cupcakes, he said, and you’re not battle-tested come interleague play. Your Ratings Percentage Index will take a hit, something the selection committee considers when determining which teams get at-large bids come tournament time.

With that in mind, Alford said this year’s schedule has his name written all over it — and it’s one of the most difficult schedules compiled in Alford’s years at UNM.
“Yeah, that’s my fault,” Alford said. “We did that schedule thinking (we’d have centers) Kem Nweke and Isaiah Rusher. It’s probably too much to bite off, to be honest with you.”

This year’s calendar is peppered with tournament contenders.

UNM has a date with California — a team which lost to Maryland 84-71 in the first round of the NCAA tourney — Dec. 2. There are no placeholders filling the Lobos’ planner between that matchup and a neutral-site contest with Texas A&M on Dec. 12: in between, UNM will take on in-state rival NMSU and visit San Diego.

Just for good measure, the Lobos will complete the second leg of a home-and-home with Texas Tech, which will be making the return trip to The Pit Dec. 29. Lastly, UNM will take on Dayton, which fell to Kansas in the second round of the NCAA Tournament.

“You’re playing those big names,” Alford said. “You got to win some of those big-name games. We obviously didn’t win enough in the nonleague (last year). That’s scary going into this season. We have to be patient. That’s not real easy. I’m not a real patient guy.”

For his own sake, Alford would be well-suited to develop that virtue as soon as possible. It could potentially be a long year, considering the Lobos are down three seniors — Tony Danridge, Chad Toppert and Daniel Faris — and their 12-man roster is composed of a combined nine freshmen and sophomores.

But swing man Phillip McDonald, now entering his second year with the team, doesn’t see it that way.

“If we end up beating good teams and BCS schools, we have a chance to be ranked in the top 25,” he said. “Matter of fact, it’ll help us get in the tournament.”
Yep, but it could also have Alford exhausted, mumbling to himself on the bench, asking why on God’s green earth he scheduled such stout competition.