Issue date: 11/9/04 Section: News

Media Credit: Xavier Mascareñas David Goodstein, vice provost at California Institute of Technology, speaks on the shrinking oil supply worldwide on Monday in Woodward Hall.

Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime this century when the fuel runs out.

Such is the grim prediction author and California Institute of Technology professor and vice provost David Goodstein concluded his lecture with Monday night.

"I certainly hope my prediction is wrong," he told the audience that filled Woodward Hall. "And I certainly hope making the prediction will help make it wrong."

Goodstein was on a book tour for his latest book, Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil.

He gave a 30-minute presentation on the projected exhaustion of world fuel supplies and the difficulties of making the transition to alternative fuel sources.

Based on the Hubbert Peak theory, America is scheduled to run out of oil by the end of the century, Goodstein said.

Hubbert's theory, created by geophysicist M. King Hubbert during the 1950s, accurately predicted the availability of oil in the United States would peak in the early 1970s.

Goodstein said the theory has predicted the rate of global oil discovery, suggesting it may predict total global oil supplies.

He said the world is headed toward a global oil shortage that could cause warfare, economic depression and the crumbling of institutions.

"There will be a crisis," he said. "It will be painful. We have just invaded Iraq. If anybody thinks that war was not about oil, you should think again. I call that 'oil war two.' The first Gulf War was 'oil war one.'"

Chris McKenna, an architecture student, said he is discouraged young people show such low interest in energy issues, even when faced with grim outcomes like the end of civilization as it presently exists.

"They don't react," he said. "They're just like, 'OK, whatever, I'm just going to go watch TV.'"

Goodstein's longtime colleague and friend, UNM Professor Robert Duncan, arranged his visit. He asked Goodstein to speak at UNM as part of his larger effort to use physics education to create awareness of the world's energy problems.

Continued...

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