The battle for New Mexico's undecided voters escalates this week with President George W. Bush, Democratic vice presidential candidate John Edwards and Ralph Nader scheduled to campaign here within 48 hours of each other.
Political Science professor Gilbert St. Clair said campaign rallies have less to do with winning over undecided voters than invigorating the party's activists and increasing voter turnout.
"The visits are largely pep rallies for the committed," he said. "They also get free press. This is coverage you don't have to buy."
St. Clair said Bush's campaign visits before the election in 2000 helped him nearly win the state.
"(New Mexico) is evenly split, so that means even the minor candidates can have effect," he said. "Just 2,000 votes can determine how we go."
Campaign rallies reinforce the feelings of voters who have already decided who is best suited to lead the country, said Lonna Atkeson, a UNM political science professor who specializes in elections and public opinion.
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"For many of these undecided voters, a single visit does not make a difference, but the cumulative total of the campaign will," she said. "When a presidential candidate visits a state, they are trying to obtain earned or free media coverage to enhance their standing in the state, as well as mobilize and energize workers who will hopefully help to mobilize those precious undecided voters on a candidate's behalf."
Brian Sanderoff, president of Research & Polling Inc., said there is no scientific evidence indicating campaign stops improve candidate's public repute. But he said common sense tells him the impact is often far-reaching, even in a sharply-divided state with few undecided voters.
"It's not the 500 people they spoke to that day," he said. "It's the tens of thousands who'll see it on the TV news that night and in the newspapers the next day."
Sanderoff said one example of how a candidate's campaign stop could be a public relations victory is Kerry's New Mexico visit by train in early August.
"The Harry Truman-style train stop in Gallup - that's a lot of good will," he said. "Can I demonstrate it quantitatively? No."
Kerry has campaigned twice in New Mexico since his caucus victory.
Bush's Aug. 12 visit to New Mexico was his first since initiating his re-election campaign.
"The president will visit as much as it takes to win the state," said Scott Jennings, a spokesman for the New Mexico Bush/Cheney re-election campaign.
Bush lost New Mexico's five electoral votes to Al Gore by 366 votes in 2000.
Sanderoff said opinion polls show Kerry consistently leading Bush since July in New Mexico.
