The war in Iraq, the debates and political advertisements have one thing in common - they influence the polls. But the relation between the reliability, reasoning and the people behind the polls isn't always as obvious.
In an effort to clear up the process, the second installment of UNM's Election 2004 Forum Series brought Brian Sanderoff, president of Research and Polling, Inc., to offer his insight Monday night.
Research and Polling, Inc., is the largest public-opinion polling group in the state and conducts polls for the Albuquerque Journal.
Sanderoff said his polls have been virtually dead-on in past elections.
"We have a near-perfect record in 18 years of general elections for the Albuquerque Journal," he said. "We've screwed up twice in over 60 elections, and even then, we were within the margin of error."
A margin of error is the range of discrepancy between the choices. The lower the margin of error, the more reliable the poll.
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The poll respondents are also an important factor to assess, Sanderoff said. Respondents are chosen from likely voters, registered
voters and voters from previous elections who are likely to vote again. The key to a good poll though, Sanderoff said, is polling a representative sample of voters.
"The secret to good polling is that just because you draw a good sample, it isn't going to be representative," he said. "Random no longer means representative."
Depending on the type of election and the expected voter turnout, likely or registered voters are polled, but not both. In order to poll a random sample, voters are selected based on the demographics they fit. For example, women, minorities and young adults are all undercounted in New Mexico in an effort to represent the actual voter turnout.
"Purists wouldn't do what we do, but what we do works," Sanderoff said.
Christina Sharp, one of about 20 students who attended the forum, said she hopes polls don't influence the votes of her peers.
"I think some of the young adults who don't vote are uninformed, and some are just lazy," she said. "I don't pay attention to the polls, but they don't influence my vote. If the polls do influence the election, it's not fair."
Sanderoff predicts two-thirds of the voters in Bernalillo County will vote before Election Day, which could have a major effect on the outcome of the election and make it harder for him to make an accurate prediction.
"It's growing every year as people become more accustomed to early and absentee voting," he said. "The campaigns are doing a great job of it, and the people are more receptive to it, and people want to vote this time."
A.J. LaprÇ helped organize the forums to provide students with another source of information on campus.
"We wanted to bring in experts in politics to talk to students about their expertise and to help them be better informed," he said.
The series, sponsored by the Department of Political Science, will hold its next forum on Oct. 28. ˇ
