by Ashleigh Sanchez
Daily Lobo
Global warming will reduce surface water in the Rio Grande Valley, and the shortage will change New Mexico's economy, a team of researchers said.
Brian Hurd and Julia Coonrod conducted a yearlong study on how climate change will affect the state's water supply.
"Direct and indirect economic losses are projected to range from $13 million to $115 million by 2030," Hurd said.
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Coonrod, a UNM civil engineering professor, led the study with a research team of three UNM graduate students.
Her team studied hydrology in New Mexico using projected temperature increases caused by global warming over the next 30 years.
According to the study, if temperatures continue to rise, rain will replace snow.
Snow will melt earlier in the year, more water will evaporate, and the water supply will decrease, according to the study.
Coonrod said the study revealed something surprising.
Even in models that projected high annual precipitation, the warmer temperatures reduced stream flows significantly, she said.
"The peak snow-melt is usually in May," she said. "That flow, in the best-case scenario, decreases by 50 percent."
Less water will lead to major economic changes in New Mexico, the study found.
Hurd, an NMSU economics professor, studied the economic impact of the research.
"We've been studying scenarios of stream-flow changes, finding the balance between water supply and water usage," he said.
The researchers identified who would be the losers and winners from the changes.
Hurd said the biggest potential loser is agriculture.
"The trend will be for water to go from agricultural uses to urban uses," he said. "Agriculture is the biggest user of water but tends to be lower in value."
As water availability decreases, urban organizations will offer to buy the water allotted for agriculture at prices many farmers may not turn down, Hurd said.
He said the researchers assume the state will not regulate farmers who want to sell their water for
urban uses.
"It means no restrictions on who can get the water - a situation that is highly improbable," he said.
Coonrod and Hurd said the study is a projection, but the situation is complex, and many factors could change the outcome for better or worse.
"It doesn't have to be a dismal outlook," Hurd said. "We discussed strategies to prepare for it. We want to plan. We want to create policies and form partnerships so we can be proactive about our futures."
Coonrod said a shift from agriculture should concern all New Mexicans.
"It would change the characteristics of New Mexico," she said. "All the nature we enjoy - that's something that should be protected."
Coonrod said she wants the study to bring this issue to the attention of water managers and the public.
"We've got to conserve and got to look at alternative methods, like desalinization," she said. "New houses have low-flow appliances, which is good, but how many have gray-water systems and rainfall harvesting? There's more we can do."
