New Mexico from swing state to full-time blue state

Leading up to Election Day, New Mexicans had seen Democrat Martin Heinrich’s camping bed and Republican Heather Wilson’s kitchen so many times they thought they were on some RV trip from hell with the candidates. The high volume of advertisements and the large amount of money spent on this race demonstrate that many political insiders thought this race would be close, but it wasn’t.

Political professionals “inside the Beltway” paid little attention to the race since early this summer — this was a mistake. The true story for this race wasn’t how close it was, but why it wasn’t close at all, and what it means for the future.

New Mexico is considered a swing state, and with good reason. In the last 10 presidential elections, including the most recent one, New Mexico has gone for the Republicans five times and Democrats five times. Of the last four governors of New Mexico, two have been Democrats and two have been Republicans.

Heinrich and Wilson are well-matched opponents. Both have strong political résumés and both served New Mexico’s first district in the House of Representatives. According to numbers reported Oct. 17, Heinrich and Wilson were very close in terms of fundraising. Each raised more than $6 million.

Heinrich and Wilson both ran primarily on their party’s national platform. Heinrich’s campaign focused on the Democratic approach to the economy, Social Security, Medicare and energy. Wilson focused on the debt, cutting regulations and the Republican approach to the economy.

With such capable candidates running on national issues and a swing electoral history, one would have expected the election results to have been fairly close, but they weren’t. Heinrich received 51 percent of the vote, while Wilson topped out at just 45 percent. With current political divisions, this 6 percent difference between the top two candidates is a large spread.

Additionally, Heinrich led in every poll throughout the race. Why?

Simply put, the Latino vote. According to United States census data, the Hispanic population has increased from 42.1 percent in 2000 to 46.7 percent in 2010. “Nonwhite Hispanics” now make up a majority of the state’s population. It is not an overstatement to say that in New Mexico, elections can be decided by the Latino vote. The change from swing state to blue represents the growing strength of the Latino vote and the issues that matter to Latinos.

Latino voters are not single-issue voters by any means. According to a poll conducted by America’s Voice and Latino Decisions, the two biggest issues for Latino voters are the economy and immigration reform/DREAM Act (“New Mexico Latino,” 2012). The New Mexico senate race gives us key insight into which party is winning the discussion on these issues with Latino voters.

The poll conducted by America’s Voice and Latino Decisions found that 57 percent of Latino voters supported Heinrich over Wilson, while only 33 percent of Latino voters supported Wilson over Heinrich (“New Mexico Latino,” 2012). Republicans have taken a hard line on immigration, so the GOP’s lack of popularity among Latino voters is not surprising. The fact that the economy is the strongest issue reveals something interesting: Democrats are winning the argument on the economy with Latino voters.

While 57 percent is far from a landslide victory for Democrats, the 33 percent has the potential to be difficult for Republicans in House and Senate races. Latino populations in California, Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Florida and Colorado are growing. The New Mexico senate race and the election results sent a clear message to the Republican Party: Rebrand or lose the Southwest.