Editor’s Note: This story was originally published on Sept. 19 in the New Mexico News Port. This is part of our project to help connect the Daily Lobo audience to more members of our community
New Mexico may be on track to have another Democratic “trifecta” after the 2018 election cycle.
A state government trifecta is when a single political party has control of the governor’s seat and the majority in both chambers of the state legislature, in this case, the New Mexico House of Representatives and New Mexico Senate.
“If history is any guide, we'll probably elect a Democratic governor, and I don’t see the environment leading to the Republicans taking over the house,” said Timothy Krebs, a political science professor at the University of New Mexico.
A recent poll by the Albuquerque Journal supports Krebs’ analysis. The poll results reported Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham leading Republican Steve Pearce in the New Mexico Governor’s race, 50 percent to 43 percent — although 7 percent of poll respondents did not indicate a preference. The poll was taken two months ahead of election day, during the week of Sept. 7 through 13.
Meanwhile, New Mexico is holding elections for every seat in the New Mexico House of Representatives.
No seats in the New Mexico State Senate are up for election this year. After the last election cycle in 2016, Democrats maintained a majority. The New Mexico Senate has had a Democratic majority for at least 25 years.
New Mexico has a history of state government trifectas. Out of the past 25 years, the democrats were in majority control of both chambers of the New Mexico legislature and the governors position during 11 of them.
Krebs noted several factors that can affect the outcome and partisanship of state legislative races. These include the popularity of a president, the national political climate and the state of the economy.
“It tends to be that the party that doesn't win the presidency is a little bit more frustrated, a little bit more mobilized to avenge that defeat, if you will,” Krebs said. “And so they work considerably harder in that first midterm than perhaps the other party.”
Krebs said that while the Republicans could benefit from the improving economy, the unpopularity of President Donald Trump “can be a drag on the ticket.” Trump’s approval rating in Sept. is 38 percent according to Gallup Poll.
Republicans were in majority control of the New Mexico House of Representatives from 2014 through 2016. Also, the state has had two, two-term Republican governors in the past 25 years.
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The Daily Lobo reached out to Minority Leader of the New Mexico House of Representatives but did not receive a response. Nate Gentry is not running for reelection in the 2018 November general election.
“I don’t see any path that gives (the Republicans) the realistic opportunity of winning majority,” said Brian Egolf, New Mexico Speaker of the House. “Our candidates are excellent. Our incumbent members have accomplished a lot over the last two years.”
Egolf has been a democratic member of the New Mexico House of Representatives from the 47th district in Santa Fe county since 2009, and was made New Mexico Speaker of the House in 2017. Egolf is running unopposed in his district for the 2018 elections.
Egolf served during the last two years of the democratic trifecta under former Governor Bill Richardson before Governor Susana Martinez took office in 2011.
He said that a lot of what the New Mexico House had been working on was vetoed under Governor Martinez, a contrast to serving under Richardson. This pattern could persist if Republican gubernatorial candidate and former U.S. Representative for New Mexico, Steve Pearce, is elected.
“We would hope that if he does get elected, he would take a different course than his congressional voting record would suggest,” Egolf said.
He said he “feels very optimistic” that Democratic gubernatorial candidate, Grisham, will be elected and the democrats will increase their majority in the New Mexico House of Representatives.
Egolf is currently traveling to primarily republican parts of the state to see what issues New Mexicans want to be addressed in the next legislative session.
“We are really going to be looking forward to the new chapter starting January,” Egolf said.
Makayla Grijalva is a freelance multimedia reporter for the Daily Lobo. She can be contacted by email at multimedia@dailylobo.com or on Twitter @MakaylaEliboria.
