This is the inaugural Daily Lobo Fantasy Football segment.
There is certainly some desire to make the obvious suggestions; start Todd Gurley, start Adam Thielen, sit Nathan Peterman. But that’s too easy, fantasy players like you need real advice. This first article is going to analyze the risks and benefits of fringe flex players. All analysis is non-PPR but the results can still inform other point scoring leagues.
The analysis of these players is finding average points scored per week and then calculating each individual standard deviation from the average. For example, that analysis on the top two running backs in the NFL would look like this:
Todd Gurley averages 25.8 points per game and his standard deviation is 6 points. He is expected to score 25.8 however, scoring in the 19.8-31.8 range is most commonly where he will land.
Melvin Gordon has an average of 22.1 points per game. His standard deviation is 6.6 making the range 15.5-28.7 expected points.
In six games this season Gurley has gone under that deviation once with 19.6 points and over once with 34.5 points, four weeks falling within that range. Gordon has gone under his standard deviation once with 14.4 points in week three and over once, with 33 points last week. Using this analysis it is clear these are two very consistent players that score an elite amount of points. Now to look at the flex players.
Potential flex running backs:
Peyton Barber (Buccaneers): Averages 6.5 points after five weeks with a standard deviation of 5.8 points.
Frank Gore (Dolphins): Averages 6.9 points through six weeks with 4.2 points of deviation.
Dion Lewis (Titans): Averages 6.0 points per game after six weeks with standard deviation of 5.6 points.
Based on these numbers Frank Gore is the safest option, having the highest average and narrowest range. There is another reason to be optimistic on him, he is likely to see more goal-line carries because of Drake’s unfortunate fumble last week. None of these players are likely to have game winning weeks however based on the defensive matchups Gore and Lewis may have above average weeks.
Potential flex wide receivers:
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Albert Wilson(Dolphins): Average is 11.2 points per game with standard deviation of 10 points.
John Brown(Ravens): 10.1 averaged points with a deviation of 5.7 points.
Dede Westbrook(Jaguars): Has an average of 8.2 points with a standard deviation of 4.2 points.
These numbers get much more interesting than the running backs, Dede is the much more consistent player but scores the fewest out of this trio. Wilson is the ultimate boom or bust player with his deviation nearly equal with his average points scored. He could leave teams with a disappointing 1.2 points with the same chance of earning 21.2 week winning points. Choosing one of these players comes down to how risk averse a team is and how badly a win is needed. John Brown has the best matchup of these three with an expected shootout against the Saints.
The running backs have tighter deviations because they are almost guaranteed more touches per game. The receivers can be riskier but have the advantage of getting the ball beyond the line of scrimmage with fewer defenders in front of them. Starting any of these players depends on how badly a player needs a win and if they are playing a team that is in the top two or three in the league.
Former Lobo Focus: Jason Sanders, place kicker for the Miami Dolphins rewarded fantasy players with 13 points off field goals and extra points. He kicked a game-winning 47-yard field goal in overtime to lift the Dolphins to a 31-28 victory.
Streaming Defense of the Week: Slim pickings, but the Colts against the Bills.
Next week an analysis on whether it is better to have the third wide receiver on an elite offense or a first receiver on a bottom five offense.
Mark Jacobson is a freelance sports reporter for the Daily Lobo. He primarily covers men’s and women’s golf, but also contributes content for various other sports. He can be contacted at sports@dailylobo.com or on Twitter @aztwoabq.
