Check this page for the Daily Lobo's updated testing and confirmed case data for the COVID-19 outbreak in New Mexico, thanks to the COVID Tracking Project. This page will be updated daily as more data is produced and reported.

As of June 3, the NMDOH has reported 8,140 confirmed COVID-19 cases in New Mexico, including 375 deaths and 3,013 recoveries. 

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Mapping the outbreak in New Mexico




The 'curve' in NM's counties

Mapping the cumulative growth of cases in the state on a logarithmic scale can help us visualize the famous 'curve'. The steeper the line, the more rapidly cases are being reported. A shallower, flatter line might suggest that the individual counties might be flattening their respective curves and mitigating the outbreak.


As of June 3, the New Mexico counties with confirmed COVID-19 cases are:

Bernalillo County: 1,524 cases (73 deaths)

Catron County: 2 cases (1 death)

Chaves County: 50 cases (2 deaths)

Cibola County: 147 cases (6 deaths)

Colfax County: 5 cases  

Curry County: 56 cases  

Doña Ana County: 488 cases (3 deaths)

Eddy County: 23 cases (1 death)

Grant County: 15 cases  

Guadalupe County: 20 cases  

Harding County: 1 case  

Hidalgo County: 1 case  

Lea County: 26 cases  

Lincoln County: 5 cases  

Los Alamos County: 6 cases  

Luna County: 10 cases (1 death)

McKinley County: 2,515 cases (119 deaths)

Otero County: 22 cases (3 deaths)

Quay County: 5 cases (1 death)

Rio Arriba County: 52 cases (1 death)

Roosevelt County: 41 cases  

Sandoval County: 575 cases (27 deaths)

San Juan County: 1,821 cases (127 deaths)

San Miguel County: 15 cases  

Santa Fe County: 150 cases (3 deaths)

Sierra County: 1 case  

Socorro County: 52 cases (5 deaths)

Taos County: 30 cases  

Torrance County: 32 cases  

Union County: 4 cases  

Valencia County: 79 cases (2 deaths)

     

In addition, the NMDOH recently began reporting case totals from various prisons and holding centers independently from the counties where they reside. These cases include:     

203 cases in federal agencies:

Otero County Processing Center (ICE facility in Otero County): 92 cases

Torrance County Detention Facility: 18 cases

Otero County Prison Facility: 91 cases

Cibola County Correctional Center: 2 cases

  

164 cases in New Mexico Corrections Department facilities:

Central New Mexico Correctional Facility in Valencia County: 1 case

Otero County Prison Facility: 162 cases

Penitentiary of New Mexico in Santa Fe County: 1 case 

Raw case growth vs. per capita growth

While the raw case count for each county is an important figure, it doesn't take into account the fact that New Mexico's population isn't evenly distributed throughout the state. For example, since Bernalillo County has (by far) more residents than any other county in the state, it tracks that Bernalilo would also have more confirmed COVID-19 cases than any other county (other than McKinley and San Juan, where the pandemic continues to ravage the Navajo Nation).

Because of that, it's just as important to look at the per-capita case growth in NM counties, which illustrates below the number of new cases that each county reports per every 100,000 people that live in each county.


COVID-19 testing in New Mexico, by the day

As of June 3, there have been 212,996 tests conducted in New Mexico, resulting in a total of 8,140 positive cases in 31 counties, all of which are still active except for 375 deaths and 3,013 recoveries.

Note: It's widely assumed that the vast majority of positive cases in the U.S. are currently undetected. Knowing that, as long as the rates of growth of both positive and total tests are comparable, it's more accurate to say that the exponential increase in confirmed cases is a function of the similar exponential increase in total tests administered. A more in-depth explainer of this visualization and more like it is available here.

How NM stacks up to the rest of the U.S.



As far as the population-relative density of positive cases go, New Mexico ranks toward the middle of the pack, with just over 4,000 confirmed cases per every million people as of June 3.

Throughout the pandemic, we've seen that New Mexico has returned one of the highest test density marks in the country while seeing a low percentage of positive tests. While testing has increased significantly in New Mexico, the low proportion of positive tests might suggest that the virus hasn't established much of a presence in the state thus far.

How infectious is COVID-19?

The basic reproduction number (referred to as R₀ or R-naught) represents an estimate of the number of new infections created by every individual case of a given disease. COVID-19's virulence ranks similarly to that of Ebola, the 2003 SARS outbreak, HIV/AIDS and the flu.

An R₀ value of 1 or below suggests an illness which is expected to die out, while a value greater than 1 demonstrates an illness' ability to spread throughout a population. Current estimates of the R₀ of the coronavirus range from 1.5 to 3.5, though this number has varied as the situation has evolved.

Public health funding and COVID-19 prevalence

There are a number of ways to look at New Mexico's ability to respond to the pandemic, including public health funding. The United Health Foundation releases annual reports outlining each state's per capita public health funding, which it defines as being a two-year estimate of "state dollars dedicated to public health and federal dollars directed to states per person by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Health Resources and Services Administration."

In this regard, New Mexico's $220-per-person mark is the second highest in the nation. Paired with a (currently) below-average cases-per-million mark, New Mexico is in the lower risk tier when it comes to public health funding and COVID-19 prevalence.

This page will be updated daily as testing data continues to be reported.

Joe Rull is the data editor at the Daily Lobo. He can be contacted at data@dailylobo.com or on Twitter @rulljoe