Pre-season football rankings count about as much as West Palm Beach ballots with hanging chads.
But that doesn’t mean that people don’t take them seriously.
Peruse any message board on the Internet and you’ll see sports fans spreading their smack talk based on the picks of prognosticators who haven’t seen one down of actual football played yet.
With good reason — it’s only July.
But with all the armchair quarterbacks out there, it is fun to check them out and see which group of writers and editors hit the nail on the head and which should stick to their fantasy football leagues.
The good folks at preseason.stassen.com have compiled 10 national pre-season picks for the Mountain West Conference and the consensus is this: Colorado State University will take the MWC title with the University of Utah coming in a close second.
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And UNM? The Lobos are picked to finish fifth in the eight-team league — running close with the University of Nevada at Las Vegas.
Given a prognosticator’s predilection for picking the Lobos much lower than they actually finish, this could be the year UNM breaks into the top three of the MWC.
Example: the MoWest media picked UNM to finish seventh in 2001. Most preseason polls agreed. The plucky Lobos pulled off a fifth place finish, just missing a New Orleans Bowl berth.
A quick sampling of the polls says this about UNM:
Athlon Sports: fourth place.
Street & Smith’s College Foot-ball: third place.
The Sporting News: fifth.
Lindy’s: fifth.
Jim Feist: sixth (the lowest pick of ‘em all).
Phil Steele: fifth.
Football Action: third.
Ultimate Football Annual: fifth.
College Football News: fifth.
Blue Ribbon: fifth.
So who’s full of it?
Jim Feist is a Vegas-based gambling guru, so you’d think that he might have some kind of inside insight.
But Feist’s formula seems to rely entirely on number crunching from the number of returning starters and the performance of last year’s team. Also, Feist was sweetest on UNLV, picking them second. Most everyone else picked the rebels fourth or fifth.
Likewise, Phil Steele is a handicapper who also relies on numbers. His picks mirror the consensus.
The best of the bunch are College Football News and Blue Ribbon.
CFN, which picked the Lobos to finish fifth, hits the question marks about UNM’s offense squarely and fairly — lack of experience in the backfield and quarterback Casey Kelly’s need to continue improving at his position. UNM cannot afford another CSU-esque performance from the junior.
However, CFN’s praise of the offensive line and receiver corps seems to bode well for Kelly. The experienced o-line should be able to both keep defenders off Kelley and open holes for running backs. The receivers should benefit from Kelley’s comfort in the pocket.
Defensively, questions arise at linebacker. But if head coach Rocky Long and associate head coach/defensive coordinator Bron-co Mendenhall have shown anything, it’s that they almost have the defense fine-tuned to the point that they can just switch out players without losing effectiveness.
Blue Ribbon, which picked UNM fifth, mirrors CFN’s analysis, saying that the key for the offense is quick development at running back. The analysis concludes that the defense will be the team’s strength. Nothing new there.
Overall, the consensus about Lobo football seems to be this: UNM will fight it out for UNLV for the fourth bowl berth. The Lobos are improved, but won’t crack the MoWest’s top three. The top three remains unchanged — Colorado State, Utah and Brigham Young University.
If spring practice is any indication, this could be a breakthrough year for UNM. As always, the season will hinge on a few key possessions and plays. Unlike the top three, the Lobos are still figuring out how to play like a winning program.
They’re still grasping for consistency on offense. Defensively, UNM has become a unit teams loathe to play — mostly because of Long’s unorthodox defense. If the defensive unit continues to develop under Long and Mendenhall’s guidance, opponents will straight-up fear it.
Look for the defense to dominate while the offense finds its rhythm a lot earlier this year. Kelley’s convincing season-ending performance against injury-addled New Mexico State University should give him the confidence to avoid another CSU-like debacle early on.
The backfield is a question mark. But players such redshirt freshman Dontrell Moore and senior Quincy Wright will be expected to step up — and they should. Add redshirt freshman Tony Frazier’s surprising spring to the mix and the backfield might not be that much of a problem.
The Lobos have proven that a slow start at the beginning of the season won’t keep them from making noise in conference play. UNM will again have a winning slate in conference and may well pull off an upset of a nationally known program.
This football team is solidly in the middle of the MWC. Given some maturing on the part of the offense and a little bit of luck that was lacking in past season, UNM could find itself making a trip to San Francisco or Seattle come bowl season. Without that luck, the Lobos will again come agonizingly close to an invitation to go bowling.
My conservative estimate: 8-5 overall, 4-3 in the MWC. Good for fourth place and a game New Year’s Eve night in San Francisco.
