by Brian Wagner
Columbia Daily Spectator
U-Wire
It has become quite obvious to politicians that Iraq is going to be the largest influence on the 2002 election season. Democrats, so sure of gaining congressional seats just weeks ago, are now scared of losing seats because their issues are being overshadowed by the Bush administration's sharp focus on Iraq. Only one problem exists in this calculation: The American electorate has decided to pay scant attention to what candidates do or say about Saddam Hussein and his regime.
The media coverage of the Iraqi issue has been so intense and the pundits have so thoroughly covered the failure of Democrats to bring up other issues that members of Congress appear to have forgotten that media organizations are not representative democracies. Reporters and pundits do not represent thousands of voters; instead they work from personal beliefs and experience.
The most recent New York Times/CBS poll, taken from Oct. 3-5, found that Iraq was only considered the dominant issue by seven percent of respondents. Polling far ahead at 30 and 26 percent, respectively, were terrorism and the economy. And another traditionally Democratic issue, welfare, polled right behind Iraq. President Bush has stated several times that the war on Iraq is a logical extension of the war on terrorism, but such an outlook is apparently not shared by the majority of the nation.
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Saddam, while considered a dangerous tyrant by many Americans, has not intruded upon their lives in the way Pearl Harbor or Sept. 11 did. Saddam is dangerous, but he has not inspired the same hatred and motivation to fight that Americans directed toward bin Laden and al Qaeda.
All this information should be a shot in the arm for Democratic politicians, but instead they have been telling tales of woe. Speaking of Democratic chances at gaining seats, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana told The New York Times that the optimism Democrats felt about the November elections two months ago has now been replaced with pessimism because of the ubiquitous presence of Saddam as a political hot potato.
While it may appear to those on Capitol Hill that Iraq is a boon for the Republican candidates, public opinion supports a different view. According to the poll, not only do Americans care less about Iraq than other issues, but they also want to hear candidates speak less about Iraq. CBS's analysis of the poll reports that 70 percent of voters want to hear a candidate's stance on the economy, while only 17 percent want to hear about Iraq.
In a Washington Post/ABC poll taken from Sept. 23-26, respondents overwhelming said, with a 22 percent majority, that they would prefer to see a Democratic majority in Congress to act as a check on President Bush's powers. Foreign Affairs Managing Editor Gideon Rose, speaking at Columbia on Oct. 14, said that while he believes voters should take into account a candidate's stance on Iraq in November, it appears that Iraq will only play a significant role in close races where one candidate is clearly opposed to war against Iraq.
Here is a suggestion for the Democrats: Since involvement in Iraq appears to be inevitable - as Congress has already granted President Bush broad war powers - the Democratic Party, as an ideological organization, must look beyond Iraq. The party needs to focus on the issues that Democrats consistently count among their strengths - issues that Americans have clearly not forgotten. The ammunition available for the Democrats is plentiful as they take on a wartime president whose greatest accomplishment has been to prove that he can attack small countries just as well as his father. And, just like former President Bush, the current Bush is being hurt by the fact that he has made war so much of a priority that he has ignored the economy. When it comes down to the meat and potatoes - Social Security, homeland security, health care and education - this remains an election where the Democrats can gain congressional seats and increase their sphere of influence.
Regardless of what politicians regard as the top issues, the critical elections of 2002 will be decided by the voters' priorities. The politics of war will always divide the Democratic Party, but Saddam Hussein and Iraq will dictate little more than the level of the president's approval rating in the upcoming months.
When Election Day rolls around, the Democrats can ultimately pick up seats across the nation by convincing voters that they will guide the United States on a responsible path that strikes a balance between economic prosperity and national security.
