UNM graduation-rate expectations unrealistic

Editor,

On the front page of its Mail Out edition, which I believe goes out to all incoming freshman as well as alumni, the Daily Lobo published an article about UNM’s allegedly below-par graduation rate. In the article Vice Provost Goering did a good job explaining UNM’s strategy to address the situation, including ramping up the “Graduation Project,” which contacts students close to graduation who have fallen by the wayside. I thought, however, more information could be provided that puts the problem in perspective.

If one does a survey of major public U.S. universities – that is to say, the state universities with large undergraduate enrollments, from places like the University of Michigan to San Jose State – a clear correlation emerges between freshman preparation, indicated by composite ACT and SAT scores, and graduation rates. Namely, for public universities that have a median ACT composite score of 21 (or equivalent SAT composite score) for their freshman class, the average six-year graduation rate is 38.73 percent. For universities with an ACT composite score of 22 – UNM falls into this group – the average six-year graduation rate is 38.39 percent. No appreciable difference, in fact slightly lower.

But for universities with higher median ACT scores the graduation rate steadily and dramatically increases: ACT 23, avg. grad. rate 54.14 percent; ACT 24, avg. grad. rate 58.65 percent; ACT 25, avg. grad. rate 68.16 percent; ACT 26, avg. grad. rate 69.63 percent; ACT 27, avg. grad. rate 76.46 percent; ACT 28 and above, avg. grad. rate 84.1 percent. (This data, based on a survey of 100 universities, was obtained from the College Results Online website, CollegeResults.org/search_basic.aspx, of The Education Trust.)

At least two salient facts emerge from this data. First, UNM’s six-year graduation rate of 43.7 percent (according to this website; UNM’s own official figure is 42.7) is actually significantly better than the average graduation rate of universities in the same ACT group of 22. The university with the highest six-year graduation rate in this group was University of North Florida, at 45.1%. UNM is doing about as well as a university can do with the students it accepts.

Second, it appears that UNM would have a statistically better chance of having a substantially higher graduation rate, by even as much as 24 percent, by raising the median ACT of its incoming freshmen by just one point, from 22 to 23! This could be done without the expensive interventions being proposed by the administration in a time of impending further budget cuts – simply by raising admission standards.

Of course, there are other factors that affect graduation rates besides freshman preparation. I suspect there is also a correlation between being located in a large metropolitan area and a lower graduation rate. Dr. Goering also implied this in his remarks. I invite the reader to go to the website to make his or her own comparisons and observations. But I suggest that you note in particular the other universities that together with UNM form the group with a median ACT composite score of 22.

There are three prevailing beliefs about the University of New Mexico. (a) It should be an open university, which accepts practically any high school graduate in the state who wants the benefit of a university education. (Our acceptance rate is about 70 percent.) (b) It should graduate a substantial percentage of its students in a reasonable period of time, so that the resources of students and taxpayers are not being wasted. © It should be a research university with high academic standards. Actually, as I think about this I realize there is a fourth prevailing belief about UNM: (d) It should have a winning men’s basketball team at all costs.

I submit that (a), (b), and © are what is called an “inconsistent triad” in logic: One can consistently hold any two of these propositions but not all three together. (Another way to put it: of the three propositions, at most two can be true.) Thus, one may think that UNM should be a research university with a higher graduation rate, but one must then reject (or suitably modify) one’s belief that it should be an open one. Or else, one may think that it should be a research university which is open, but then one must give up the idea that it will have a high graduation rate. Finally, one may insist that it should be both open and have a high graduation rate, but then one must give up the idea that it is a research university.

The citizens of New Mexico – including our legislators, the governor (whoever that will be), and especially the regents of UNM – need to decide which kind of “flagship” university they want. But as we all know – and sorry for the cliché – you can’t have your cake and eat it too.

John Taber
Professor, Department of Philosophy
Faculty Senator, College of Arts and Sciences