OPINION: Why New Mexico Democrats should be terrified of primary challengers

If New Mexico’s Democratic incumbents are sleeping easy, they might want to set an alarm.

Across the country, a political undercurrent is turning into a wave — and it’s not coming from the right. In New York City, a progressive insurgent named Zohran Mamdani has proven that establishment Democrats are no longer safe in reliably blue states. That same undercurrent could begin to stir in New Mexico, where young, progressive challengers might be eyeing the 2026 primaries with serious intent — and real potential.

On June 24, Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist and state assemblyman, toppled New York’s ex-governor Andrew Cuomo, a Democratic dinosaur with deep institutional backing, in the New York City Democratic mayoral primary.

Mamdani is not a typical Democrat — and that’s precisely the point. He didn’t rise through a party machine or benefit from a well-connected political family. Instead, he built his political identity as a grassroots organizer and housing advocate, not a career politician.

Born in Kampala, Uganda, to South Asian parents and raised in New York City, Mamdani represents a striking departure from the traditional Democratic mold. He is Muslim — in a country where Muslim Americans still face persistent political marginalization and media-driven suspicion. While Muslims are being more positively viewed now than in the past, more Americans view the Muslim religion in a negative light versus a positive one and the favorability of Muslims has been declining, according to a University of Maryland study.

He speaks not as someone managing politics from above, but as someone who has lived the precarity and frustration that drive many to disengage from it entirely. That perspective is part of what allowed him to win a primary typically dominated by establishment Democrats — and why his win matters far beyond New York.

The upset sent a clear message: establishment Democrats are vulnerable, even in their strongholds. That message should resonate in New Mexico. The political DNA of both states is more similar than many assume.

Both are heavily Democratic in registration but ideologically diverse. Like New York, New Mexico is a blue stronghold and has voted blue in their presidential election every four years since 2004. However, New Mexican voters are not a monolith and come from widely different backgrounds with different ideas for a brighter future.

Both have seen widening gaps between progressive voters and centrist leadership. In the 2024 New Mexico primary, 10% of Democratic voters chose to cast their ballots as “uncommitted” — more than double the rate from 2020. This sharp increase in protest voting signals growing discontent among progressives and a party that disappoints them.

Here in New Mexico, a new class of would-be challengers could emerge — possibly from organizing circles, labor unions and activist campaigns — and after witnessing Mamdani’s sweep, they might be beginning to lay the groundwork for 2026 primary runs. They’re not household names yet, but neither was Mamdani when his support was 1% in February, according to Emerson College Polling.

In the 2026 New Mexico primaries, we could see a shared playbook that prioritizes ground game, social media fluency and issue-based mobilization — particularly on cost of living, public transportation, public safety and housing.

The incumbents they may face — from state legislators to federal representatives — have largely coasted through past elections unopposed or with token challengers. But the political climate is shifting. Trust in party hierarchies is eroding. According to a June Reuters poll, 62% of self-identified Democrats agreed with a statement that “the leadership of the Democratic Party should be replaced with new people.”

While many incumbents maintain high approval ratings, those numbers often mask deeper dissatisfaction. Constituents may be satisfied with an establishment Democrat if it’s their only option, but when there’s a more progressive young person running, that approval rating may freefall.

And New Mexico is no stranger to intra-party upsets. In 2024, opposition from progressive challengers Jon Hill and Heather Berghmans led to democratic incumbents being unseated. That pattern could be stronger in 2026.

For New Mexico’s party leadership, this should be a wake-up call.

Still, winning a primary is no guarantee of general election success. In November, Mamdani will face  the Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa, Independent Mayor Eric Adams, and potentially an Independent Cuomo.

Only time will tell if Mamdani will be able to expand his coalition and win New York’s general election. Progressive upsetters in New Mexico may find similar difficulties in expanding their coalition and appeal beyond progressive young voters.

If Mamdani’s win in New York teaches us anything, it’s that insurgent progressives are no longer long shots — they’re contenders.

For New Mexico Democratic watchers the 2026 calendar approach: be warned. The next big upset might not come from across the aisle — it might come from inside your own party.

Nate Bernard is the news editor for the Daily Lobo. He can be reached at news@dailylobo.com or on X @natebernard14

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