Tomorrow the Lobos travel to Las Cruces to take on in-state rival New Mexico State University for the 93rd time.
People are wondering if UNM will be as dominating as it was in last year's match up when the Lobos kicked the stuffing out of a depleted NMSU squad 53-0. It was the first shutout for UNM since 1984 and the second best beating of the Aggies, surpassed only by a 61-0 Lobo slaughter in 1948.
This weekend's game will not be as lopsided as last year's for a number of reasons. First of all, in a strange twist in the schedule caused by Sept. 11 last year, the game was pushed back to the end of November. At that point the Aggies were playing for virtually nothing while UNM still had an outside shot at a bowl game. NMSU was also down several players because of injury, including star quarterback K.C. Enzminger. Second, beating the Aggies that badly twice in a row just doesn't happen. NMSU has always been a formidable foe and has beaten the Lobos twice over the past four years.
The Aggies have looked good in tough losses to good teams. They opened their season playing 18th-ranked South Carolina and were defeated 34-24. In its second game, NMSU lost to the University of California at Berkeley 34-13. Both games were on the road.
The Aggies will be more prepared this time. They're coming off a bye week and therefore have had two weeks to get ready for UNM. The Lobos will still beat NMSU this weekend because they are simply a better football team.
The key to this week's game for the Lobos will be how well DonTrell Moore and the running game performs. On Saturday we saw senior star running back Quincy Wright go down on a play that looked harmless enough but produced a season-ending knee injury. Moore replaced Wright and had a good game, gaining 93 yards on 22 carries. Good numbers, but not like Wright who, going into last week was third in the nation in rushing. The other thing that UNM loses along with Wright is the ability to make the big play. Wright had touchdown runs of 34 and 63 yards against Weber State and a 48-yard touchdown catch against Air Force. Take away those big plays and you have to wonder how easily the Lobos would have beaten Weber State or even kept it close against Air Force.
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If UNM can establish the run, it will open things up for a red-hot Casey Kelly. Kelly did not have the best numbers in last week's game, completing 14 of 28 passes for 92 yards, but the main reason was that his wide receivers dropped several catchable balls.
If the Lobos establish the run and open the offense they should be able to come out on top. Posting a shutout in last week's 23-0 blanking of Baylor, the defense looks like it has worked out most of the early season jitters.
My prediction is that NMSU will come out with a lot of energy to start the game. If UNM can withstand the initial Aggie rush and keep everything under control, they should be all right. Final score: UNM 37, NMSU 23.
