Lately, it takes me three hours to watch a 48-minute NBA game.
In this year's postseason, we saw 10 overtime periods, with one game in the Bulls-Celtics series going to triple-OT.
Compare that to the playoffs in baseball and football, and it appears that, in basketball, games are far more likely to end regulation in a tie than in other sports.
Enter Jeff Ely, professor of economics at Northwestern University. Looking at the average scoring distributions of home and away teams from 1997 to 2009, Ely deduced that the fourth quarter should end in a tie about 2 percent of the time. However, looking at the outcomes, about 6 percent of games go into overtime, three times what the data would suggest.
Statistically, ending in a tie is the most likely outcome of any pro basketball game, according to Ely. Next is the home team winning by six, which happens 3 percent of the time.
How can we explain this?
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On one hand, we can credit the trudging pace of a close game's final minutes. Trailing teams opt to intentionally foul, stopping the clock and forcing their opponents to the free-throw line in hopes of some misses. If the other team bricks its free throws, the losing squad calls timeout, taking the ball at half court and earning a chance to close the gap or tie the game. From there, either the trailing team makes up the difference, or the team ahead pulls away by making free throws.
If the game is tied with just a few seconds on the clock, we can assume it is likely to remain tied at the buzzer, because neither team will call a risky play - one that could result in a turnover - and possibly blow the game when an extra five minutes is all but guaranteed.
On the other hand, perhaps the reason behind so many ties is unquantifiable. It's an age-old platitude that NBA athletes simply play better in the playoffs, whether due to the increased viewership or the higher stakes. Perhaps, when the margin is tight, players summon extra skill and effort that wouldn't otherwise be available. Perhaps losing brings out superhuman abilities in athletes, giving them a physical and mental advantage over the team set to win.
I'd like to believe that, but I've watched too many NBA games not to consider a third option: bad officiating. As thrilling as the close games of this postseason have been, it's hard to look past the glaring bad calls that come late in tight matches. When Rajon Rondo slapped Brad Miller, when Antoine Wright bumped Carmelo Anthony, when Kobe Bryant sent Jameer Nelson to the floor with an elbow - all were blown calls, and all helped swing a close game in the postseason.
And it's not just this year. Decisive bad calls have plagued the league throughout its history: one sent the Knicks to the Finals; one trampled the hearts of Suns fans the world over.
But players know the rules, so they should be able to calculate what is and is not permitted in a game, right?
Well, no. The NBA is like a failed state with no rule of law. Enforcement is dependent on the clock, the month and, unfortunately, the name on a jersey. A foul in the first quarter is not necessarily a foul in the fourth. A foul in October is hardly a foul come June. And a foul on Joel Przybilla is just good defense for Dwight Howard.
So, if officials are easing off their whistles in the twilight of a playoff game, it invariably favors the losing team. Teams with the lead will play cautiously, trying to avoid fouling so as not to give their opponents free buckets at the line. Conversely, the trailing team has nothing to lose, and thus will be playing desperation basketball, something that often results in violent defense and hardheaded drives to the basket. And if the refs aren't calling those fouls, coming back from a deficit is easier than maintaining a lead.
I'd like to think this year's contentious postseason is the result of freak athletes and their insistent will, unfazed by pain or jeers or bad sideline interviews. I'd settle for it being due to the nature of basketball - the idea that the game is structured to make nail-biter endings more likely. But, I'm afraid, we might have to credit a gang of dusty old men with whistles, men who occasionally go to prison for rigging games and sometimes eject players for laughing.
