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There’s still a chance for the New Mexico football team to make a bowl game this year — it’s just not a favorable one.
Sitting at 2-5 and coming off one of its worst performances in the Bob Davie era — a 45-10 shellacking by Utah State on Oct. 19 — the team’s chances are about as good as the odds of Congress agreeing on what to do with the government.
With only five games left, UNM would have to play some of its best football of the season in order to win the four games necessary to secure its first bowl berth since 2007, when the Lobos defeated Nevada 23-0 in the New Mexico Bowl. That year was also the last time UNM had a stretch of winning four out of five games or better.
Mathematically speaking, it’s possible, but the schedule down the stretch is what will keep the Lobos home for the holidays. Losing winnable games to the University of Texas-San Antonio and UNLV earlier in the year didn’t help UNM’s standing either.
This week the Lobos travel to San Diego State, host Air Force the following week, then take on Colorado State in their home finale.
All winnable games, right?
Before the season it might’ve been a “yes,” but now all of those games look like ‘L’s, except maybe the game versus the Falcons, who are 1-7 this year. SDSU could be a toss-up, but Colorado’s Rams demolished Wyoming 52-22 on Oct 19. The Lobos had to rally from a 21-0 deficit at Wyoming but lost 38-31.
Let’s give UNM the benefit of the doubt and say it does find a way to beat SDSU, Air Force and CSU. That would put the team at 5-5 — one win away from that sweet, sweet bowl berth. This obviously would be the best possible situation for UNM heading into the last two weeks of the season.
But UNM finishes the year with arguably the two toughest teams in the conference: Fresno State and Boise State on the road.
The Bulldogs are the last undefeated team in the MWC at 7-0 (4-0 MWC), ranked No. 16 in the Associated Press Poll with one of the top quarterbacks in the conference in senior Derek Carr, who ranks sixth in the country in passing yards with 2,574 on the year, has a 69.0 completion percentage and has thrown 25 touchdowns to just four picks.
The matchup against Fresno is a nightmare for UNM defensively, as the Lobos have one of the worst defenses in the country — No. 114, to be precise — giving up 480.7 yards per game on average. The Bulldogs have the seventh-best offense in the nation, gaining 524.6 yards per game.
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Carr torched the Lobos last year, and he would surely do the same this season. UNM would have to win in a shootout, and that’s highly unlikely. Just take a look back at the Lobos’ 56-42 loss to UNLV on Sept. 28. They were unstoppable in the first half, but after the Rebels made some second-half adjustments, UNM’s offense stalled out. Keep in mind that Fresno has only allowed 145.7 rushing yards per game.
Last year, the Lobos did take a 21-0 lead over the Bulldogs, but couldn’t hold on because they ran out of quarterbacks and Fresno figured out UNM’s defense, winning 49-32 at University Stadium.
Regardless, that game will surely be a loss for UNM, giving the team a 5-6 record entering its next game at BSU on Nov. 30.
The Broncos may or may not have starting senior signal-caller Joe Southwick back in time for that game because of a broken ankle that will keep him out for an undetermined amount of time, according to NBC Sports.
If Southwick is out, that does strengthen the Lobos’ chances at a win, but junior quarterback Grant Hedrick filled in admirably for Southwick in BSU’s 34-17 win over Nevada on Oct 19.
Hedrick was efficient against the Wolf Pack, completing 18 of 21 passes for 150 yards and a run for 115 yards with two scores.
Mind you, it took a miraculous 25-point comeback for the Lobos to make last year’s game in Albuquerque interesting, but they ultimately came up short, losing 32-29.
The way things look now, even with a backup quarterback starting for BSU, this would be another loss putting UNM at 5-7 to end its season and its bowl dreams.
Of course, this is all hypothetical situation — the likelihood of UNM even reaching that point is low, as I stated earlier.
This will mark another bowl season without the Lobos, and it doesn’t come as a surprise. Head coach Bob Davie keeps telling us about the progress this team has made, and it has made quite a few strides. To have Davie and the team’s success be placed on whether or not a bowl berth happens is ridiculous at this point in time.
