Even as the decades-long drought in the Southwest continues, New Mexico is experiencing an unusually dry winter that could result in increased wildfires.
Most wildfires in New Mexico occur in mid-elevation mixed conifer forests, where fire suppression and human activity has increased fuel loads that would historically burn every five to 25 years. The Director of the University of New Mexico’s Center for Fire Resilient Ecosystems and Society, Professor of Biology Matthew Hurteau, said some of the causes of severe wildfires are related to human intervention in natural fire cycles.
“Where we have intervened directly is kind of that mid-montane layer, so the ponderosa pine mixed conifer, by putting out the fires for a long time,” Hurteau said. “That’s where we get a lot of those big, hot, fast-moving fires that are really impactful.”
Nearly 85% of wildfires are caused by humans, according to the National Park Service.
In April 2022, New Mexico experienced its largest wildfire in history, the Hermit’s Peak and Calf Canyon Fire, which started when a prescribed burn by the Forest Service overran its boundaries and combined with the Calf Canyon smoldering pile burn, resulting in 340,000 acres of forests burned. A 2024 report by the U.S. Government Accountability Office determined that incorrect prescriptions have been applied to burn plans in the past that sometimes are exacerbated by persistent drought.
This winter has been unusually warm and dry for New Mexico, and the upcoming fire season is shaping up to be more intense than the historical average as a result, according to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. When winter temperatures increase, the lack of snowpack leaves taller foliage upright, increasing the risk of wildfire, according to a presentation by the National Integrated Drought Information System.
After a particularly intense fire has scorched a forest, like the 2011 Las Conchas fire in Jemez that burned approximately 156,000 acres, flooding and erosion further impacted the area, according to the National Park Service.
“That fire burned right before monsoon rains came, and the erosion and ash that came down off the mountains was so intense in the Rio Grande that the city of Albuquerque had to shut down the water intake because they couldn’t process the stuff out of the water,” Hurteau said.
Much of each state’s firefighting resources are funded and managed by the federal government. In 2025, the Biden administration allocated $7.3 billion to the Forest Service and Department of the Interior, which includes the Bureau of Land Management and the National Park Service, for the purposes of wildfire management.
In 2023, New Mexico appropriated $100 million in zero-percent interest loans to local governments or political subdivisions for the repair or replacement of public infrastructure in the wake of the Calf Canyon/Hermit’s Peak fire. The loans will ultimately be reimbursed by the federal government. Research organizations like the FiRES Center provide up-to-date analysis of the economic impact of increased wildfire activity.
Wildfire management costs for the federal government are projected to increase, with a middle-of-the-road estimate of 42% and a high estimate of 84% by 2050, according to the
Forest Service Southern Research Station. This does not include private or municipal funding, nor does it consider the impact on people and property.
Get content from The Daily Lobo delivered to your inbox
Since 2022, the Federal Emergency Management Agency has been allotted $5.45 billion to compensate victims of the Calf Canyon/Hermit’s Peak fire for damages, according
Ethan Alvarez is a freelance reporter for the Daily Lobo. He can be reached at news@dailylobo.com or on X @DailyLobo
